Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are flying off the board early in 2023 Fantasy football drafts, both being selected inside the top 15 picks. However, players who are uncomfortable with a 2023 Fantasy football strategy that includes burning an early pick on a QB are looking for the best values in the second and third 2023 Fantasy football tiers. Justin Herbert, Justin Fields and Aaron Rodgers are among the quarterbacks high in the 2023 Fantasy football rankings who can be picked in the fourth round or later, according to the latest 2023 Fantasy football ADP. Which part of the draft brings the best values at quarterback, and which running backs, receivers and tight ends should you target with your 2023 Fantasy football picks?
You'll need to target 2023 Fantasy football sleepers and 2023 Fantasy football breakouts in drafts while avoiding 2023 Fantasy football busts. Before setting your 2023 Fantasy football draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2023 Fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Last year, the model accurately predicted that 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel was being dramatically overvalued. Samuel was the sixth receiver coming off the board on average, but the model had him ranked outside the top 10. The result: Samuel followed up a season in which he had 1,770 scrimmage yards and 14 touchdowns by producing just 864 yards and five scores.
The same model has a proven track record providing Fantasy football tips, identifying A.J. Brown as another sleeper in 2020 and nailing Jonathan Taylor's enormous season in 2021. Additionally, it's called past Fantasy football sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. Anybody who banked on players like those made a run at their league title.
The model is powered by the same people who generated projections for all three major Fantasy sites, and it beat human experts last season when there was a big difference in ranking. The 2023 Fantasy football PPR rankings and 2023 Fantasy football standard projections update multiple times daily, so you're always getting the best Fantasy football advice.
Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy football rankings 2023, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2023 Fantasy football sleepers
One of the 2023 Fantasy football sleepers the model is predicting: Lions quarterback Jared Goff. After a down year in 2021, Goff bounced back with a vengeance last season and finished as the Fantasy QB8. He threw for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns, the second most of his career.
With a strong receiving core including Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Marvin Jones, and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, plus running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, Detroit should once again maintain a top-10 offense this season. Goff's 2023 Fantasy football ADP is currently in the ninth round, but SportsLine's model projects him outperforming the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and Aaron Rodgers, who are being drafted ahead of him. See more Fantasy football sleepers 2023 here.
Top 2023 Fantasy football breakouts
The model is also projecting Lions tight end Sam LaPorta as one of its 2023 Fantasy football breakouts. After trading T.J. Hockenson to the division-rival Vikings in the middle of last season, Detroit didn't adequately address the position until the second round of this year's NFL Draft. In his final two seasons at the University of Iowa, LaPorta recorded at least 50 receptions for 650 yards, despite playing in a struggling offense.
The rookie tight end was a standout during training camp and though usually rookie tight ends don't come highly sought-after in Fantasy football circles, LaPorta may be the exception. With Detroit's offense projected to once again be among the league's 10 most dynamic, it's fair to think that LaPorta may post numbers similar to his recent college seasons. He is well worth a flier late in drafts as a Fantasy TE2. See more Fantasy football breakouts 2023 here.
Top 2023 Fantasy football busts
As for players to avoid, the model lists Colts receiver Michael Pittman Jr. as one of its 2023 Fantasy football busts. Pittman will be part of an Indianapolis offense that will be without star running Jonathan Taylor for at least the first four weeks of the season.
Taylor's absence could play a major factor in Pittman's production, especially with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson under center. Pittman racked up 99 receptions in 2022, the most of his career, but he finished the season with just four touchdown catches. Pittman was inconsistent for Fantasy owners last season, posting five games in which he didn't reach double-digit PPR points. That's a big reason why the model ranks Pittman, who's being drafted in the 13th round on average, behind fellow wideouts like Jonathan Mingo, Tyler Boyd and D.J. Chark, all of whom are being drafted at least three rounds later on average. See more Fantasy football busts 2023 here
How to find proven 2023 Fantasy football football rankings
SportsLine is also extremely high on a surprising quarterback you aren't even thinking about being taken in the middle rounds of 2023 Fantasy football drafts. This quarterback is listed as a shocking top-10 option ahead of stars like Trevor Lawrence and Aaron Rodgers. You can only see who it is, and the 2023 Fantasy football rankings for every player, at SportsLine.
So which 2023 Fantasy Football sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which QB shocks the NFL with a top-10 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get 2023 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that nailed Deebo Samuel as a bust last year, and find out.
